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By now, it is passé to warn that the US Federal Reserve is “behind the curve” in fighting inflation. In fact, the Fed is so far behind that it can’t even see the curve and may have to slam on the policy brakes to regain control before it is too late
25 Jan 2022
As the Sino-American trade war approaches its fourth year, there is ample evidence to show that both sides have been harmed by the tit-for-tat exchange of protectionist measures. But, far from spelling an end to globalization, the conflict may have laid the foundation for an even more robust world trading system
23 Jan 2022
When eurozone finance ministers recently issued a joint paean to the single currency on the occasion of the 20th anniversary of the introduction of euro banknotes and coins, something remarkable happened: Nothing. No one joined in the celebrations, and no one cared enough to dissent
22 Jan 2022
In many low- and middle-income countries, poor policy choices have created financial and economic problems that have only grown worse as a result of the pandemic. Unless these mistakes are corrected, continued financial support will never provide genuine economic relief
21 Jan 2022
In addressing the economic and financial fallout of the Covid-19 pandemic, the US Federal Reserve has not only failed to ensure price stability, but has also doubled down on the misguided approach of the post-2008 era. The result is a financial system oriented around dangerously misaligned incentives
20 Jan 2022
Forecasting inflation is a staple of macroeconomic modelling, yet virtually all economists’ predictions for the United States in 2021 were way off the mark. This dismal performance reflected a collective failure to take economic models seriously enough, as well as other analytical shortcomings
19 Jan 2022
After a remarkably strong performance in 2021, financial markets now seem to be coming to terms with the likelihood that fiscal and monetary policies will tighten in 2022. Though a bearish outlook may not yet be warranted, the possibility that equities could suffer a net-negative year must be taken seriously
18 Jan 2022
It’s time for the bond market’s voluntary guidelines to be phased out. They are no longer fit for purpose. We need proper rules with deterrents and sanctions.
17 Jan 2022
After helping to drive decades of development and modernization in emerging economies, the 20th century economist W. Arthur Lewis's Nobel Prize-winning growth model can now be applied to the entire world. Unfortunately, what it shows is that we are heading into a period of deep uncertainty and supply-constrained growth.
17 Jan 2022
Experiments that depart from conventional economic policy can be costly. But this does not mean that there are universal rules in economics or that the prevailing view among mainstream economists should determine what policymakers do
14 Jan 2022
Unlike the United States, which could spend one-quarter of its GDP protecting its economy from the Covid-19 fallout, Argentina entered the pandemic with the deck stacked against it. Yet, thanks to the current government’s policies to strengthen the real economy, the country has been enjoying a remarkable recovery
11 Jan 2022
The rigid stances of Modern Monetary Theory’s devotees and detractors have not lent themselves to productive discussion. This is a serious loss for policymakers, because MMT includes both problematic propositions and perfectly reasonable – even highly useful – ones
11 Jan 2022
After years of central banks keeping interest rates low and pumping liquidity into financial markets, asset valuations are at historic highs. While entrepreneurs and venture capitalist founders tell themselves that “capital is a strategy”, bubble finance is no substitute for a business plan that can achieve positive cash flow
9 Jan 2022
Firms like GE and Siemens may well find that their decision to split their businesses into multiple companies leads to increased profits and higher stock prices. But recent research indicates that this is not the only way conglomerates can boost efficiency
8 Jan 2022
While the conventional wisdom is that the next financial crash will come from the collapse of the cryptocurrency bubble, climate finance may pose a more serious risk. Mounting evidence suggests that green lending is displaying all the pathologies associated with financial manias
7 Jan 2022